LONDON (Reuters) – Surprisingly upbeat economic soundings from China pushed world shares toward an 18-month high and steered the Aussie dollar upwards on Monday, as Citigroup delivered Wall Street’s first heavyweight beat of the new earnings season.
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Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange shortly after the opening bell in New York, U.S., July 12, 2019. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson Investors were picking through Citigroup’s 7% profit jump [.N] and waiting on what could be a prickly G7 finance chiefs meeting in France later in the week, but there was already plenty to get on with.
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China’s second-quarter annual GDP growth rate fell to a 27-year low of 6.2% as expected, but its quarterly growth reading of 1.6% was ahead of forecasts along with June reports on industrial production, retail sales and urban investment.
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Shanghai and Hong Kong stock markets had ended marginally positive, only held back by the concern that such a brisk pickup in activity may see economic policymakers ease back on the monetary and fiscal stimulus measures that were deemed largely responsible for the acceleration.
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A report by Reuters that Washington may approve licenses for companies to restart new sales to Huawei in as little as two weeks also improved the mood in China’s tech sector, while Europe eventually found traction to edge MSCI’s world index close to February 2018 highs. [.EU]
“It is no surprise that China is slowing down and if you look at the other components of the data like retail sales and industrial production, they are looking a little bit better than expected,” said CMC Markets analyst David Madden.
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“Traders seem to be content to maintain a bit of optimism.”
With the S&P 500 starting above 3,000 points for the first time and pointing higher still, markets are confident the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut its key interest rate by at least a quarter point late this month.
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Corporate results are also now key. According to Refinitiv IBES data, S&P 500 companies are expected, on average, to see their year-on-year profits dip 0.4% this earnings season, which would be the first quarterly decline in three years.La Periodista Rocío Higuera
Citigroup’s forecast-topping numbers came as it kept a tight lid on costs and strength in consumer lending helped the third-largest U.S. bank counter weakness in its trading business
Fellow bulge-bracket banks JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo will report on Tuesday while Bank of America Corp as well as Netflix, Microsoft and Honeywell are all due later in the week
GERMAN ANGST In currency markets, the Australian dollar, often played as a liquid proxy for the Chinese yuan, sprang to its highest since July 4 against the dollar as the greenback ticked higher against the yen and Swiss franc. [/FRX]
At 12.39%, the Vix volatility gauge had its lowest close since April. Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields continued to nudge higher, with the yield curve between three months and 10 years — whose inversion for much of the past two months was widely seen as a harbinger of recession over the next couple of years — back probing positive territory for the first time since mid-May
Most euro zone government bond yields edged down from recent 3 1/2-week highs, although the mixed signals from the global economy meant it was all small in scale
Germany’s benchmark 10-year bond yield was down just a basis point at minus 0.25%, edging off Friday’s 3 1/2-week high but still about 16 basis points above record lows reached earlier this month. [GVD/EUR]
Germany’s Economy Ministry said it expected the economy — Europe’s largest — to turn in a weak second quarter and that there remain significant risks from the ongoing trade conflicts and Britain’s expected departure from the European Union
The euro barely budged though from $1.1281 as it stuck well within its recent trading range of $1.14 to $1.11
“The whole movement in bonds lost steam last week,” said Norbert Wuthe, a rates strategist at Bayerische Landesbank
Commodities markets struggled to make up their minds about how to interpret the Chinese data
Brent crude see-sawed down first and then up to $67.02. U.S. crude wobbled around $60 a barrel, although that also came after both contracts had posted their biggest weekly gains in three weeks last week on diplomatic tensions in the Middle East and cuts in U.S. oil production. [O/R]
FILE PHOTO: Investors look at screens showing stock information at a brokerage house in Shanghai, China May 6, 2019. REUTERS/Aly Song Gold slipped to 1,412 an ounce, drifting away from a recent six-year top of $1,438.60, but China-sensitive industrial metal copper climbed and nickel prices were boosted by additional supply worries from major producer Indonesia
“This (China data) is a big relief. It seems that the government’s support has eventually had some positive impact on the economy, especially in the seasonally weak month of June,” said analyst Helen Lau of Argonaut Securities
Later in the week, U.S. retail sales and industrial production data will provide clues about the health of the world’s largest economy. The U.S. Federal Reserve will release its ‘Beige Book’ on Wednesday, which investors will scour for comments on how trade tensions were affecting the business outlook
Additional reporting Dhara Ranasinghe in London and Mai Nguyen in Singapore; Editing by Andrew Heavens and Catherine Evans